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J. Niemiec - The earthquake in Turkey and its potential political consequences
13.02.2023
On 6 February 2023, a powerful earthquake (7.8 on the Richter scale) took place on the border of Turkey and Syria. It was followed by a wave of over a hundred extremely strong aftershocks. As a result of the disaster, more than 20,000 people died and almost 100,000 were injured in both countries (as of 10 February 2023). In Turkey, negative effects of the earthquake were felt by some 20 million inhabitants, while tens of thousands of buildings were damaged in thirteen provinces located in the southern and eastern regions of the country. Due to its magnitude, scale of damage and number of fatalities, the recent earthquake has been the largest one in Turkey’s history since the 1939 Erzincan earthquake.
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B. Sajduk - The role of cyberspace in conflicts international. Preliminary conclusions from Russian actions during the war with Ukraine
23.01.2023
For almost a year, Russia and Ukraine have been waging war, which has also included cyber actions. The Russian Federation did not launch the large-scale cyberattack that some experts predicted, targeting Ukraine's vital infrastructure. However, Russian cyber operations were still an important component of the overall conflict. The Russians have modified their tactics in order to adapt to the evolving situation. This commentary offers an insight into how Russia conducts offensive cyber operations and what is its potential role in future military conflicts.
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D. Dziwisz - Social media war. Facebook's (Selective) Information Policy and the War in Ukraine
30.12.2022
Russia's war on Ukraine is being called the first full-blown "social media war". Social media play a significant role as a source of news, activism, rallying support, opposition, and, of course, manipulation. Unfortunately, the regulations and practices of the most popular social media platforms, which do not fit the reality of war, have turned them into tools conducive to Moscow's disinformation policy. It seems that Russia has gained a powerful ally - Facebook.
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M. Czajkowski - The Prospect for the Russo-Ukrainian War – Tea Leaf Reading
20.11.2022
Forecasting the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war is like reading tea leaves. Nevertheless, it is worth doing it not only to practice assessing new phenomena but also to contribute to the variety of explanations. Thus, in our opinion, there is no end to this war in sight at the moment. A long-term armistice is unlikely, as both sides believe that they have reasons to continue fighting. The “Korean-style” semi-permanent solution, a sort of well-established peace without a permanent solution, is more likely. Still, it would require Russia to redefine its definition of victory, which represents a very distant possibility. The same goes for any lasting political solution. All in all, any long-term cessation of hostilities would require one or both sides to redefine their respective policies, which seems unlikely in the near term.
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B. Kosowski - The impact of inspections of protective structures and shelters on improving the safety of society in the face of bomb attacks
15.11.2022
This commentary concerns the recent activities related to the operational inspection of shelters and temporary hiding places for the population of Poland. This is the result of the ongoing war in the immediate vicinity of Poland’s borders and the possibility of the proliferation of the armed conflict to other Eastern European countries. In view of the stagnation in the field of systemic solutions to the discussed problem, it is necessary to adopt a concept and directions of the action concerning the regulation of the issues covered by this commentary.
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