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M. Czajkowski - Coronavirus in the Middle East – Waiting for Armageddon

M. Czajkowski -  Coronavirus in the Middle East – Waiting for Armageddon

It is a challenging task to predict the spread of the novel coronavirus, as most of the experts underscore that its characteristics are, to a great extent new. Specifically, it is believed that this pathogen is substantially more infectious than a “normal’ flu strain. However, judging from the current information regarding the course of the pandemic in various countries, we may try to predict its trajectory in areas which have so far been less severely affected. In the Middle East, according to the official data available, the spread of Covid-19 is relatively low. Other than a high rate of infections in Iran and Turkey, the worst-hit country seems to be Saudi Arabia with only 5,862 people infected as of April 15th, 2020. But this is probably just the beginning of the outbreak in the region, and we may expect to see a catastrophic epidemic which will likely erupt in the region. It will also have severe ramifications for regional security. This commentary explores some of the worst-case scenarios. For this purpose, we assume that the Covid-19 will spread rapidly in the Middle East and affect millions of people.

Marek Czajkowski

KBN Commentary no. 12 (67) / 2020

 15 April 2020

It is a challenging task to predict the spread of the novel coronavirus, as most of the experts underscore that its characteristics are, to a great extent new. Specifically, it is believed that this pathogen is substantially more infectious than a “normal’ flu strain. However, judging from the current information regarding the course of the pandemic in various countries, we may try to predict its trajectory in areas which have so far been less severely affected. In the Middle East, according to the official data available, the spread of Covid-19 is relatively low. Other than a high rate of infections in Iran and Turkey, the worst-hit country seems to be Saudi Arabia with only 5,862 people infected as of April 15th, 2020. But this is probably just the beginning of the outbreak in the region, and we may expect to see a catastrophic epidemic which will likely erupt in the region. It will also have severe ramifications for regional security. This commentary explores some of the worst-case scenarios. For this purpose, we assume that the Covid-19 will spread rapidly in the Middle East and affect millions of people.

Photo credit: Izzeddin Idilbi - Anadolu Agency (via Middle East Monitor, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20191121-un-official-attack-on-syria-refugee-camp-sickening/)

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M. Czajkowski - Coronavirus in the Middle East – Waiting for Armageddon